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The Swoosh Recovery Continues

Last year early in the recession, there was quite a debate about what shape the U.S. economy pandemic recovery would take. The two candidates that got the most support were a V-shaped recovery and a swoosh-shaped one. A V-shaped recovery indicated a steep, but very short recession with a quick and robust recovery. The swoosh-shaped recovery was named after the famous Nike logo. This shape indicates a steep decline followed by a gradual recovery.

As far back as last August it appeared the swoosh recovery was likely.  And the evidence now shows the swoosh is the winner.

The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the Oxford Economics Recovery Tracker, and shows the swoosh pattern.

Recovery tracker

The chart showing total U.S. non-farm employment *blow) is even more swoosh like.

Fred recovery

It seems like one of the lessons from this recession is it’s easier to shut down an economy than it is to restart it.

But the good news is that the economy is clearly recovering.

 

This article was originally published here.

Steve King

Steve King is an advisory board member of JEM and a founding partner of Emergent Research where he leads the firm’s ongoing research identifying, analyzing and forecasting the global trends and shifts impacting consumers, small businesses, the gig economy, independent workers and Web 3.0’s role in future of work. Steve enjoys wide industry recognition as an expert on the future of work. He is an active public speaker and has written for the Harvard Business Review, Fast Company, U.S. News and World Report, Venture Beat, Wired and other publications.

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