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The Swoosh Recovery Continues

Last year early in the recession, there was quite a debate about what shape the U.S. economy pandemic recovery would take. The two candidates that got the most support were a V-shaped recovery and a swoosh-shaped one. A V-shaped recovery indicated a steep, but very short recession with a quick and robust recovery. The swoosh-shaped recovery was named after the famous Nike logo. This shape indicates a steep decline followed by a gradual recovery.

As far back as last August it appeared the swoosh recovery was likely.  And the evidence now shows the swoosh is the winner.

The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the Oxford Economics Recovery Tracker, and shows the swoosh pattern.

Recovery tracker

The chart showing total U.S. non-farm employment *blow) is even more swoosh like.

Fred recovery

It seems like one of the lessons from this recession is it’s easier to shut down an economy than it is to restart it.

But the good news is that the economy is clearly recovering.


This article was originally published here.

Steve King

Steve King

Steve King is an advisory board member of JEM and a Partner at Emergent Research. Steve’s current research and consulting is focused on economic decentralization, the growth of small business and the future of work and workplaces. Steve has extensive consulting, marketing and general management experience with both large and small companies. Steve has served as Vice President of Corporate Marketing for Macromedia, Vice President and General Manager of Asia Pacific for Lotus Development Corporation and Vice President of Marketing for Isys Corporation. He has also been the interim CEO, CMO or head of business development for six start-up technology companies and has served on the fiduciary or advisory boards of over a dozen companies. Steve was a Founding Fellow and board member of the Society For New Communications Research, is a research affiliate at the Future of Work and an advisory board member at Pond Ventures. Steve has a B.S. from the University of Richmond and an MBA from Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Business.

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